Still nothing has changed in the DAX 30 and S&P 500

The DAX is still in its range between 6120 and 5750. A break in either way would lead to a bigger move to the up- or downside. Below 5750 my first target is 5490 and then somewhere around the 5000 level. Above 6120 my target is 6400 and then 6600!
I think today or tomorrow a break will occur!

The S&P 500 just closed on a supporting trendline. Around 1226 is the 50 day moving average which could act as support too. At this point I have a bearish bias but I am looking forward to a breakout and that should be traded.

DAX back to 6400?

The German DAX touched in October the 200 day exponential moving average and sold off hard afterwards. Since then the DAX stabilized between 5800 and 6200. Even tough it is still in this range I think a break to the upside is imminent. To me it does not look like a completed top! At least the 6400 area should be retested maybe in the upcoming week. I am expecting a weak start into the trading week ahead but until Thursday the DAX could rise to 6400. Above that 6600 seems to me like a reasonable level for the DAX to reach in the next few weeks. If we will get a very strong year-end rally the DAX can even rise to 6990 (former level of support). But that should be at least a medium term ceiling for the DAX. At this point I am expecting a huge sell-off in 2012 and I will post if anything changes in that forecast!
I know this is a bold call but I am risking it!

The SPY (ETF on the S&P 500) also consolidated after the recent highs. If the SPY gets up to the highs from October the DAX would be around 6400 and if the SPY would rise to 132 (the declining trendline) the DAX would rise to 6600! These are very key levels in my opinion. As long as 5750 in the DAX and 123 in the SPY hold as support there is no need for shorting the market in the intermediate timeframe!

SPY at resistance?!

The S&P 500 gapped up today and the action was very bullish until 3am. I don't want to beat around the bush: my sense is that we could have seen the/a top today!

First of all despite the general view a gap up is a sign of strength I see this gap as an exhaustion gap. After a huge move a gap usually indicates either that the bulls resign (gap-down) or that the bears resign!
Moreover some points are very similar to the action on July 7th.
1. After a big upward movement a gap.
2. Buyers control the market until the final hour of trading.
3. Profit-taking in the final hour.
4. Shooting star on a daily chart.
5. Compare the sentiment readings of the AAII survey. Last time the sentiment was similar to this week's was on July 7th.