DAX 6200...

In the DAX 30 there is a gap-support and trendline support at 6200.. From there I expect a recovery over the next few days. Especially with the ES down 16 points before the US market is open the downside should be limited.. Below 6190 the target would be around 6140!

SPY at resistance?!

The S&P 500 gapped up today and the action was very bullish until 3am. I don't want to beat around the bush: my sense is that we could have seen the/a top today!

First of all despite the general view a gap up is a sign of strength I see this gap as an exhaustion gap. After a huge move a gap usually indicates either that the bulls resign (gap-down) or that the bears resign!
Moreover some points are very similar to the action on July 7th.
1. After a big upward movement a gap.
2. Buyers control the market until the final hour of trading.
3. Profit-taking in the final hour.
4. Shooting star on a daily chart.
5. Compare the sentiment readings of the AAII survey. Last time the sentiment was similar to this week's was on July 7th.

S&P Breakout?

Today the S&P 500 finally closed above 1230. Is this a convincing breakout?

I don't think so..
Why? Just take a look at the German DAX:
October 13th 2010: DAX broke out of its trading range; S&P did not but followed some days later.
August 1st 2011 DAX closed below 7000 for a while and S&P was still in its trading range but broke down on the next day.
And now this trading range:
October 4th 2011: S&P broke to new lows while the DAX was 120 points away from its recent lows.
October 21st 2011: S&P broke to new highs while the DAX is 130 points away from a breakout (future 120 points)