Sunday, June 12, 2011

Market Analysis - CAC 40, S&P 500, SMI and ATX

Today I will take a look at the CAC 40, S&P 500, SMI and ATX.

The chart of the CAC 40 looks like the EUROSTOXX 50 chart. It is basically in a sideways market since the end of 2009. From last year's summer until now it formed a nice uptrend which lower trendline is at 3800. There is a good chance that this trendline holds as support once again otherwise a test of 3700 is very likely.
Below 3700 the situation would get more bearish and the lows of 2010 could be retested.


The S&P 500 on the other side looks in the longer term picture much healthier and is still above its uptrend. Nevertheless the shorter term trend is clearly down and test of the March 2011 lows, the 200 day moving average and the trendline, all around 1250 should happen next week. I am expecting a rebound back above 1300 in the next four weeks or so, but longer term this could turn out as a big top formation. If the S&P 500 breaks below 1250 the next support is around 1220 to 1225. In my opinion the mentioned scenario is in the cards until the S&P 500 breaks below 1200.


The SMI is like many other European indices in a sideways market since the end of 2009. A very critical level for the SMI is the 6000 level. It acted as support twice and a break below would indicate a move back down to 5200.


The ATX looks a little bit better than the SMI. In December 2010 the ATX broke above 2700 and 2800. This area acted as resistance in 2009 and 2010 and is now support for the index. But be cautious because the bounces off that 2700 level are getting weaker and weaker. A break below 2700 would send the ATX back down to 2400.

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