Technical Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

The DAX 30 bounced higher as I mentioned in my last post. Now the index is back at the very critical level of 7320/7325.  A break above 7320 would send the DAX back up to 7400. A break below this week's lows would be very bearish.

Today's close in the S&P 500 is critical and the bulls should lift the index back to the highs around 1310 into the close. I am expecting a test of the 50 and 100 day moving average in the S&P 500 at 1317. The S&P 500 should hold 1294 otherwise another test of the 200 day moving average around 1264 is in the cards.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

Today's action was obviously negative in the DAX. But as you can see the DAX 30 bounced off the drawn trendline several times and so it did today. For Monday I am expecting a move back down to 7083/7084 and from there a rise to 7200 or higher. If the German index falls below 7075/7065 and this scenario is invalidated. The next levels to the downside would be 7040, 7020, 6990 and below that the gap close and the 200 day moving average at 6960. But as I mentioned until a break below 7065 I am in favour of the upside scenario.

In the S&P 500 nothing has really changed since yesterday although today's session was very weak. During the session the bulls never fought back but the S&P 500 is still above its 200 day moving averages (both simply and exponential). I am still expecting a bounce to the upside for the coming days. I mentioned last week that maybe the bulls have to wait for July until the stock market is able to bounce. Above 1300 the next stop should be somewhere between 1320 and 1345. A break below the 200 day moving averages would probably send the index back down to the March lows around 1248 and below that support should be around 1225 to 1235.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

After yesterday's action I got much more cautious and today proved me right. The DAX 30 closed down nearly 130 points at 7149. The DAX basically held the 7150 level and has the chance to rise to 7400 in the next few days. This scenario is still intact mainly due to a reversal in the after hours. The news out of Europe/Greece lifted the markets up from its lows.
Tomorrow and over the next few days the DAX must not violate today's lows at 7115 otherwise there is downside potential to 7040 and 6990. Resistance is around 7310 and above that 7400.

The S&P 500 looked very weak intraday but after half of the session stocks got some bids. The S&P 500 touched its trendline back from the March 2009 lows and its 200 day moving average and closed at the highs of the day. Overall today's action was very bullish in my opinion and I think the S&P 500 could easily move back up to at least 1320.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

Yesterday the DAX 30 broke as expected above 7230 and reached its first resistance level around 7310. The DAX 30 tried several times to break above that level but always failed. I think tomorrow we could see some consolidation. A break above 7310 would give the DAX some room to 7400 to 7410. At least after that level we could see at least a retest of the breakout level around 7230. In the hourly chart the DAX is in an upward trend channel. Trendline resistance is at 7330 and trendline support is around 7160 (both rising). If the DAX 30 breaks below 7130 new lows would be very likely.

The S&P 500 is very likely forming a bigger topping formation. In the shorter time we could easily see prices back above 1300 more precisely I am expecting a move back up to 1325 to 1340. Most of today's trading session was in the favour of the bulls. The S&P 500 consolidated around 1295 but in the last two hours it gave back nearly half of yesterday's gains. That was not very impressive at all. A break below 1275 or 1270 and I think the S&P 500 will test the March lows at 1250. Usually the end of June shows weakness so I think the chances for a bigger bounce to the upside are much better in July.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50

The DAX 30 is still in its sideways range between 7030 and 7250. A break above 7245 to 7250 would indicate a rise to 7410 to 7450. A break below 7030 and 6990 would send the index to 6940 the 200 day moving average. At this point I prefer the break to the upside but act quickly and be prepared for any scenario.

The EUROSTOXX 50 looks weaker than the DAX 30. A break below 2690 would be bearish and the next support zone would be around 2650. The index has to break above 2800 to get bullish. Then I think 2870 and above that 2950 is on the horizon.