Market Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

After yesterday's action I got much more cautious and today proved me right. The DAX 30 closed down nearly 130 points at 7149. The DAX basically held the 7150 level and has the chance to rise to 7400 in the next few days. This scenario is still intact mainly due to a reversal in the after hours. The news out of Europe/Greece lifted the markets up from its lows.
Tomorrow and over the next few days the DAX must not violate today's lows at 7115 otherwise there is downside potential to 7040 and 6990. Resistance is around 7310 and above that 7400.

The S&P 500 looked very weak intraday but after half of the session stocks got some bids. The S&P 500 touched its trendline back from the March 2009 lows and its 200 day moving average and closed at the highs of the day. Overall today's action was very bullish in my opinion and I think the S&P 500 could easily move back up to at least 1320.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and S&P 500

Yesterday the DAX 30 broke as expected above 7230 and reached its first resistance level around 7310. The DAX 30 tried several times to break above that level but always failed. I think tomorrow we could see some consolidation. A break above 7310 would give the DAX some room to 7400 to 7410. At least after that level we could see at least a retest of the breakout level around 7230. In the hourly chart the DAX is in an upward trend channel. Trendline resistance is at 7330 and trendline support is around 7160 (both rising). If the DAX 30 breaks below 7130 new lows would be very likely.

The S&P 500 is very likely forming a bigger topping formation. In the shorter time we could easily see prices back above 1300 more precisely I am expecting a move back up to 1325 to 1340. Most of today's trading session was in the favour of the bulls. The S&P 500 consolidated around 1295 but in the last two hours it gave back nearly half of yesterday's gains. That was not very impressive at all. A break below 1275 or 1270 and I think the S&P 500 will test the March lows at 1250. Usually the end of June shows weakness so I think the chances for a bigger bounce to the upside are much better in July.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50

The DAX 30 is still in its sideways range between 7030 and 7250. A break above 7245 to 7250 would indicate a rise to 7410 to 7450. A break below 7030 and 6990 would send the index to 6940 the 200 day moving average. At this point I prefer the break to the upside but act quickly and be prepared for any scenario.

The EUROSTOXX 50 looks weaker than the DAX 30. A break below 2690 would be bearish and the next support zone would be around 2650. The index has to break above 2800 to get bullish. Then I think 2870 and above that 2950 is on the horizon.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50

DAX and EUROSTOXX 50 have both closed quite ok. So I think the bulls will have a chance to push the indices higher. Just the last few minutes we saw an explosion in the Volatility Indices of the US-Indices which I was looking for. In my opinion we could see a nice rally over the next few days, maybe even weeks. Watch in the S&P 500 cash the 1249 level a daily close below it would be bearish. In the EUROSTOXX 50 today's lows should hold and in the DAX 30 the 6990 level is critical.

Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50

The XETRA DAX 30 is lower today but still forming a bottoming patter. In my opinion the 6990 level is very critical but it would be better if the DAX can hold 7030. Two reasons why I think there is not much downside left in all the western indices are the very bearish sentiment and the pretty extended put-call-ratios. My upside target is at least 7440. The situation would get more critical in the DAX if it would break 6990 but even then you would have to watch the daily closes because just around 6850 is the 50 week moving average which held several times as support.

The EUROSTOXX 50 broke to new lows today. The RSI on the other hand is not forming new lows. So this could be an exhaustion gap but you have to watch today's close. It should close above 2710.