The EUROSTOXX 50 looks weaker than the DAX 30. A break below 2690 would be bearish and the next support zone would be around 2650. The index has to break above 2800 to get bullish. Then I think 2870 and above that 2950 is on the horizon.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50
The DAX 30 is still in its sideways range between 7030 and 7250. A break above 7245 to 7250 would indicate a rise to 7410 to 7450. A break below 7030 and 6990 would send the index to 6940 the 200 day moving average. At this point I prefer the break to the upside but act quickly and be prepared for any scenario.
The EUROSTOXX 50 looks weaker than the DAX 30. A break below 2690 would be bearish and the next support zone would be around 2650. The index has to break above 2800 to get bullish. Then I think 2870 and above that 2950 is on the horizon.
The EUROSTOXX 50 looks weaker than the DAX 30. A break below 2690 would be bearish and the next support zone would be around 2650. The index has to break above 2800 to get bullish. Then I think 2870 and above that 2950 is on the horizon.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50
DAX and EUROSTOXX 50 have both closed quite ok. So I think the bulls will have a chance to push the indices higher. Just the last few minutes we saw an explosion in the Volatility Indices of the US-Indices which I was looking for. In my opinion we could see a nice rally over the next few days, maybe even weeks. Watch in the S&P 500 cash the 1249 level a daily close below it would be bearish. In the EUROSTOXX 50 today's lows should hold and in the DAX 30 the 6990 level is critical.
Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50
The XETRA DAX 30 is lower today but still forming a bottoming patter. In my opinion the 6990 level is very critical but it would be better if the DAX can hold 7030. Two reasons why I think there is not much downside left in all the western indices are the very bearish sentiment and the pretty extended put-call-ratios. My upside target is at least 7440. The situation would get more critical in the DAX if it would break 6990 but even then you would have to watch the daily closes because just around 6850 is the 50 week moving average which held several times as support.
The EUROSTOXX 50 broke to new lows today. The RSI on the other hand is not forming new lows. So this could be an exhaustion gap but you have to watch today's close. It should close above 2710.
The EUROSTOXX 50 broke to new lows today. The RSI on the other hand is not forming new lows. So this could be an exhaustion gap but you have to watch today's close. It should close above 2710.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Market Analysis - DAX 30 and EUROSTOXX 50
The German DAX 30 broke above its downtrend line of the consolidation pattern this morning. The recently mentioned gap between 7183 and 7194 is already closed and I think 7300 is on the horizon. Maybe even 7500 points are possible over the next few weeks. My opinion is that the up gap should hold today and even over the next few days. A break back underneath the trendline would be bearish.
The EUROSTOXX 50 also started some sort of relief rally this morning but not as impulsive as the DAX 30 did. It has already broken the lower trendline but I think there is also a second way how you can draw a trendline. In the chart below you can see that this trendline is now around 2800 so we will see. In the short-/medium term I am positive but take a close look at today's gaps in both indices.
Monday, June 13, 2011
Market Analysis - DAX 30, NIKKEI 225 and IBEX 35
Today I will take a quick look at the XETRA DAX 30, NIKKEI 225 and IBEX 35.
To me it seems that the German DAX 30 is still consolidating before moving back higher. My upside target is around the highs of February (7400). There it will be critical to take out the recent highs around 7600. That will be quite difficult because my opinion is that we are already near a top. But now back to the shorter term picture. There is still a gap open between 7184 and 7193 which I expect to get closed. Right there is also the declining trendline. For sure the DAX 30 could test before a gap close the 50 week moving average around 6850 but the declining line from the February highs to the March/April high held so far as support. If you are short the DAX 30 be aware that above 7200 a fast short-squeeze could occur up to 7300.
The NIKKEI 225 has build a more sideways than downward channel since mid 2009. I am not expecting a near term breakout of this channel. In the short term the recent lows around 9350 must hold as support otherwise a retest of the Fukushima lows is in the cards. On the other hand a break above 9750 will send the index to 10000 and afterwards the upper trendline will get in focus.
The Spanish IBEX 35 is an underperformer compared to the German DAX 30. The index is forming a triangle since 2010 and on a logarithmic scale the IBEX 35 already broke to the downside. Shorter term I want to emphasize the 9800 level. It was resistance many times in 2008 and 2009 and should act as support. Since mid 2010 the 11000 level acted as resistance. I will watch a break under or above these levels for a trading opportunity.
Please feel free to leave any comments or send me an email.
To me it seems that the German DAX 30 is still consolidating before moving back higher. My upside target is around the highs of February (7400). There it will be critical to take out the recent highs around 7600. That will be quite difficult because my opinion is that we are already near a top. But now back to the shorter term picture. There is still a gap open between 7184 and 7193 which I expect to get closed. Right there is also the declining trendline. For sure the DAX 30 could test before a gap close the 50 week moving average around 6850 but the declining line from the February highs to the March/April high held so far as support. If you are short the DAX 30 be aware that above 7200 a fast short-squeeze could occur up to 7300.
The NIKKEI 225 has build a more sideways than downward channel since mid 2009. I am not expecting a near term breakout of this channel. In the short term the recent lows around 9350 must hold as support otherwise a retest of the Fukushima lows is in the cards. On the other hand a break above 9750 will send the index to 10000 and afterwards the upper trendline will get in focus.
The Spanish IBEX 35 is an underperformer compared to the German DAX 30. The index is forming a triangle since 2010 and on a logarithmic scale the IBEX 35 already broke to the downside. Shorter term I want to emphasize the 9800 level. It was resistance many times in 2008 and 2009 and should act as support. Since mid 2010 the 11000 level acted as resistance. I will watch a break under or above these levels for a trading opportunity.
Please feel free to leave any comments or send me an email.
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